Dr. Gray says chance of Atlantic Hurricane is reduced by likely shift to El Niño

Reduced chance of continued La Nina increases the possibility of an above trend US corn in 2012.

Above normal precipitation in districts of Corn belt where most needed.

La Nina DAILY SOI breaks +4sdev, this may precede a significant movement toward levels of one yr ago.

La Niña expected through April. Wx likely to resemble last Dec–Jun in much of the Earth, but less extreme

Dry soils this fall bring an increased drought risk in the western Corn Belt for 2012

Weather based statistics indicate a US corn yield of 149BPA, the prime factor this year is the Aridity Index

On week24 of 2011 there are 29 districts likely to yield below trend… US corn est 149 BPA

USDA corn yield estimate is due Aug 11th, if above 153BPA for US it is too high.

USDA corn yield estimate is due Aug 11th, if above 153BPA for US it is too high.

With heat & a “not really gone” La Niña, the likely US corn yield is about like last year (153 BPA).

90-day SOI falls below 8 & July forecast is revised, now less typical of La Niña

Winter & Spring almost matched the La Niña “risk” map for the U.S.

Dr. Wolter agrees, La Niña “almost” gone & “neutral” conditions are likely the rest of the year.

Just an SOI blip, I hope, but in 1974 it was a return to La Niña, keep watching

Some announced the La Niña “dead” as of 26 May 2011; they may be correct, but not likely. Think July.

La Niña with SOI now @ +1.43 is likely to persist until July as is extreme weather. Neutral SOI is 0.8 or less. Periods of extreme temperature (to the hot & to the cold side) & of wet spells & very dry spells. Are typical of a strong La Niña as are above normal numbers of severe weather events. The current La Niña is rated in the strongest 4 of the past 100+ years (Others 1947, 1952-55, 1974).

90-day outlook uncertain but not unfavorable for Midwest corn that was planted timely.

Dr Wolter finds La Niña still ranked 4 in historical strength, U. S. crops remain at significant risk.

The electronic DEC corn market (9AM 4/22/2011) “assumes” a US yield of 157BPA